利率因素再次抬头，使得美元步入熊途_saxo

	Note: I'm filling in temporarily for Mr. Robert Balan, who will return to this space on Monday, July 5. I will publish this column once daily in early European hours. 6月29日市场评论： 昨天如我们所料见到美元大幅走弱，然后强于预计的个人收入数据和高于预计的个人消费数据解救了美元的弱势。这抹掉了我们大部分的利润，现在我们至少在欧元兑美元上被迫采取一种谨慎的姿态。随着每次上涨之后的大幅回撤，图形开始变得有点凌乱。澳元正在走得更好并且有很多技术上的支持。观点偏好，但是还没有突破，因此我们能做的最好是希望昨天的市场行为停止下来并且在伊拉克权利移交新闻的作用下进入超买状态，这是与市场不相关的。今天将以某种方式提供答案。 昨天晚上的纽约时报刊发了一篇文章显示布什的支持率任何时候都是最低的。而最近密歇根信心指数极端的高，这使我觉得有些不可思议。我怀疑国民对他们的总统的感觉和他们总体的自信心之间的密切关系——换句话说，国民的情绪都在下降。我仔细研究了最近几年消费者信心指数和密歇根信心指数之间的相互关系，发现当它们在相当长时间内是紧密关联，仅在个别月份里出现戏剧性的差别。通过最近对布什的民意测验，我就料想今天的消费信心指数将是非常令人失望的。 昨天晚上的日本工业生产总值数据表现最差，预计2.5%，实际0.5%。普通家庭消费和商业信心也令人沮丧。这无疑增加了利率的负担，对日元是一个双重打击，日元兑美元和欧元明显走弱。这个过程将随着利率上升而继续，欧日可能再次见到134.00，同时美日可能在更高的109.20区间整理。 加拿大的选举：自由主义者获胜，这个结果是可能的但不是通过选票获得的，这对加元意味着什么？我已经看到了13种不同的解释，因为没有一条意见是非常引人注目的，所以我决定放弃这些建议。技术分析告诉我，美汇加元看起来可能破新低，目标1.3050。 New Trades Long EUR/USD - The sell-off from just below the 1.2240/50 area swing level is cause for concern, so one may want to wait for renewed strength before buying. Buy at 1.2225 with a stop at 1.2140 offered and a target of 1.2330. Long AUD/USD - If not long already, buy here around 0.6985 and put a stop at 0.6910 offered. Target is 0.7180. Long EUR/GBP - EUR/GBP is consolidating in a very tight range and may not dip lower to provide the ideal entry level. Buy here (around 0.6660) with a stop at 0.6600 offered and a target of 0.6780. Maintenance of Trading Strategies from : Long GBP/USD - Cable rallied, but fell short of our target. Sell for small profit at current levels (1.8280) Long EUR/GBP - See New Trades   Long AUD/USD - Move stop to 0.6910 offered. Long EUR/USD - Maintain stop at 1.2080 offered or sell and wait for break higher to buy again (see New Trades). Economic Data Today: Nationwide House Prices for June (UK) at 06:00 GMT Business Confidence Indicator for June (France) at 06:45 GMT PPI for May (France) at 06:50 GMT Retail Sales for May (Norway) at 08:00 GMT Retail Sales for May (Sweden) at 08:00 GMT GfK Consumer Confidence Survey for June (UK) at 09:30 GMT Industrial Product/Raw Materials Prices for May (Canada) at 12:30 GMT NBNZ Business Confidence for June (NZ) at 13:00 GMT Consumer Confidence for June (US) at 14:00 GMT Important Data this week: Wednesday: Leading Indicator (Switzerland), FOMC Rate Decision (US), Tankan Survey (Japan), Chicago PMI (US) Thursday: Retail Sales (Australia), CPI (Switzerland), Deposit Rates (Norway), Manufacturing PMI (Europe), ECB Announces Rates (EU), PMI (Swizerland), ISM Manufacturing (US) Friday: Unemployment Rate and Nonfarm Payrolls (US) ==================================== Market Commentary, June 28 Friday dished up another day of nerve-wracking tests of resistance for USD bears, as EUR/USD and USD/CHF came precariously close to breaking key levels. But USD sellers were found once again and the action continues to underline the argument that the USD will weaken further. This week should certainly provide sufficient catalysts for some large moves, either way, as Wednesday's FOMC meeting and Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls are just the two most important numbers in a very busy week. Regarding the FOMC meeting: again, judging from the bond market action, markets have overanticipated this event, so it's mostly just a question of getting the meeting out of the way so the market can focus on the next event, or indications of the rapidity with which the Fed will move in the future as compared to other central banks. My suspicion is that this week may be the week when the market begins to notice the deceleration of improvements in the Economic Data. Friday's large downward adjustment in the US GDP estimates for Q1 were an appetizer for this theme. I've been suspecting over the last several days that the situation in Iraq would eventually begin to get the markets attention, but that has not been the case at all as stock markets are turnning a blind eye to the situation and rallying. It seems the markets don't care about the violence, they may only care about the effect of that violence on oil prices. My suspicion is that the situation in Iraq will continue to worsen and will eventually begin to affect oil prices, and therefore the markets in general, once again. Turning to the trading environment, we're left again with the same trades we looked at on Friday - and we're essentially at the same levels we had on Friday as well. The first "failure point" for EUR/USD if we're to look at stop levels, comes in around 1.2080, with a bigger failure point around 1.2000. The key upside swing level comes in around 1.2240/50, meaning that if we see EUR/USD swinging through that level, the currency may quickly swing higher to the 1.2350 area resistance. Regarding the JPY - the technicals don't offer great risk/reward here. We've seen a huge move in JPY strength, and there's likely more to come, but we may see some kind of consolidation first. EUR/JPY is in a descending wedge formation, with the upper bound coming in around 131.30. If that area falls, we may see EUR/JPY back to 132 or slightly higher before EUR/JPY heads lower again. USD/JPY has retraced strongly from the 107 level. The 108.20 area should offer some robust resistance, but if it falls, we could see USD/JPY spiking higher on stops being taken out. Further out, USD/JPY may head to 106 or lower. New Trades Long EUR/USD - If not long already, buy around here (1.2150) with a stop at 1.2080 offered and a target of 1.2330 Long AUD/USD - If not long already, buy here around 0.6960 and put a stop at 0.6905 offered. Target is 0.7180. Long GBP/USD - Cable saw a nice recovery from support areas and is still in a nice consolidation range for higher levels still. Buy around here (1.8220) with a stop at 1.8120 and a target of 1.8400. Maintenance of Trading Strategies from : Long EUR/GBP - Buy again at 0.6630 or so with a stop at 0.6605 offered and a target of 0.6780 Short EUR/JPY  - Holding off for now on this trade.   Long AUD/USD - Maintain stop at 0.6905 offered. Long EUR/USD - Maintain stop at 1.2080 offered. Economic Data Today: Personal Income and Spending for May (US) at 12:30 GMT Important Data this week: Tuesday: Trade Balance (Australia), Consumer Confidence (UK) Wednesday: Leading Indicator (Switzerland), FOMC Rate Decision (US), Tankan Survey (Japan), Chicago PMI (US) Thursday: Retail Sales (Australia), CPI (Switzerland), Deposit Rates (Norway), Manufacturing PMI (Europe), ECB Announces Rates (EU), PMI (Swizerland), ISM Manufacturing (US) Friday: Unemployment Rate and Nonfarm Payrolls (US) ======================================== Market Commentary, June 25 The USD performed a dramatic about face yesterday as the previous day's false breakout higher in EUR/USD and subsequent sell-off proved a red-herring for USD bulls (and unfortunately stopped us out of our USD trades). But the immediate resurgence of the Europeans (and the dollar bloc cohorts especially) yesterday created a compelling argument for further weakening in the USD. The JPY was the strongest currency  - and made significant progress against the USD while strengthening very little against the Europeans. One reason the EUR may have found traction again was a report that the Russian Central Bank is moving to a new means for determinining the ruble exchange rate and will be moving to a basket that includes half EUR and half USD, while increasing its foreign reserve holdings of EUR to a third. This is no chump change as Russia is now competing head to head with Saudi Arabia for status as the world's largest oil producer and is already the world's largest exporter of (now very expensive) natural gas. Also, interest rates continue to tumble, and this process was aided by a bad Durable Goods orders from the US. (Lower interest rates favor carry trades, explaining why AUD/USD was an overachiever yesterday). So my favored strategy for today would be to buy the dips in the likes of EUR/USD and AUD/USD, hoping that yesterday's action was significant and indicative of higher levels to come. I think most of the profit potential in USD/JPY has been seen in the short term, and with the amount USD/JPY has already moved to the downside, it becomes a bit more dangerous to trade spot with the threat of intervention from the bank of Japan. New Trades Long EUR/USD - Buy around 1.2150 with a stop at 1.2080 offered and a target of 1.2330 Long AUD/USD - Buy around 0.6980 with a stop at 0.6905 and a target of 0.7180 Maintenance of Trading Strategies from : Long EUR/GBP - Buy again at 0.6630 or so with a stop at 0.6605 offered and a target of 0.6780 Short EUR/JPY  - The JPY may continue its recent strength, but could bounce a bit higher than expected first, so hold off perhaps for higher levels (above 131?) on EUR/JPY before selling. Short USD/JPY - Profit taking level of 107.10 was reached. Long AUD/USD - Good for you if you held on to this position. Move target up to 0.7180 and stop up to 0.6905. Economic Data Today: Current Account for Apr (Norway) at 08:00 GMT ECB Euro-Zone Current Account for Apr at 08:00 GMT IFO Industrial Survey for Jun (Germany) at 08:00 GMT   Industrial New Orders for Apr (EC) at 09:00 GMT   Final Q1 GDP revisions (US) at 12:30 GMT Retail Sales for Apr (Canada) at 12:30 GMT Final Univ of Michigan Confidence for Jun (US) at 13:50 GMT Existing Home Sales for May (US) at 14:00 GMT ==================================== Market Commentary, June 24: Resurgent optimism in US stock markets and the Japanese economy pounded EUR/USD and especially EUR/JPY yesterday and pulled the rug out from under our weak USD scenario. One reason may be the fact that the markets are looking further ahead than I orginally anticipated - specifically, beyond the FOMC meeting next Wednesday. One trading approach to the upcoming FOMC meeting could be the same approach one should have used going into Iraq war: the anticipation became so overdone before the Iraq war, that the markets simply made their move before the war even started: remember that EUR/USD began a 500-pip slide and the stock market began its strong rally a full eight days before the outbreak of hostilities. Now, the stock market rally has started eight days before the FOMC event, which may have become so anticipated that it was long ago priced into the stock market, which now may be looking beyond the meeting and anticipating a strong earnings season. The same goes for the bond market, which looks well-supported and even willing to rally despite the upcoming meeting. In this situation, the currency market theme may be reverting to one of  "comparitive growth", which currently strongly favors JPY and USD, as Europe has sorely lagged the US in the growth department. For this theme to stop and the weak USD to return, we'll need a few data points that more dramatically point to a slowing in the economic numbers than we've seen thus far - perhaps a disappointing nonfarm payrolls report next Friday, for example. We'll also need for the massive investment flows that are pouring into the US to slow, as the balance of payment situation in the US is precarious without this flow. So for now - we may see EUR/USD head back towards 1.19 and GBP/USD to 1.79, though trading-wise, I prefer to buy JPY, as I expected USD/JPY will fall as well as the EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, and CHF/JPY. New Trades Short EUR/JPY  - Sell at 130.90 with a stop at 131.75 and a target of 129.00 (one can substitute a similar short  GBP/JPY or CHF/JPY trade). Long EUR/GBP - Buy again at 0.6625 with a stop at 0.6605 offered and a target of 0.6780 Maintenance of Trading Strategies from : Short USD/JPY - Maintain short position (from above 108.50) and lower stop to 108.80. Still targeting 107.10. Long GBP/USD  - Stopped out. Long EUR/USD  - Stopped out. Short USD/CHF - Stopped out.   Long AUD/USD - There's no technical reason to see this pair lower, but if our general view of a temporarily stronger USD holds, AUD/USD will head lower. Maintain 0.6840 stop or exit for approximately breakeven (around 0.6900 as of this writing) Economic Data Today: Producer and import prices for May (Switzerland) at 7:15 GMT Riksbank Interest Rate (Sweden) at 07:30 GMT Trade Balance and PPI for May (Sweden) at 08:00 GMT   BOE Treasury Committee Inflation Report Hearing (UK) at 08:30 GMT Durable Goods Orders for May (US) at 12:30 GMT Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (US) at 12:30 GMT Important Data this week: Friday: CPI (Japan), IFO (Germany), Michigan Confidence (US), Retail Sales (Canada)