FOMC会议已经结束，接下来该关注的_saxo

	FOMC会议已经结束，接下来该关注的是当今的工业生产安全问题和未来的非农产业工人的薪水问题 Note: I'm filling in temporarily for Mr. Robert Balan, who will return to this space on Monday, July 5. I will publish this column once daily in early European hours. 7月1日市场评论 新的一天，美元表现出强弱相当的状态。这可以给本周未来市场的走势一个大致的方向。从昨天的价格走势来看已经很清晰，尤其是证券市场的行情，总体上对FOMC会议的预期有点过头。这正好是几天以前，也就是6月28日我曾论述的观点。不管怎么样，在技术分析上，澳元依然继续上涨而瑞郎则继续下跌，欧元依然处在一个上升通道中，但需要突破1.2240/50区间来确认潜在的更进一步的上涨行情，仅仅只有当往下跌穿上升通道下轨1.2080/90区间才能打破我们对上涨的设想。     和预期一样，美联储利率上涨了25个基点，而实际上对于未来的利率将以多快的速度增长他们保持了很谨慎的措辞，这对证券和股票市场是一种安慰，而对美元则是熊市。对证券和股票市场表现出牛市而美元表现出熊市的补充因素，还有近来通货膨胀的原因。 昨天的行情也在欧日和美日上表现出激烈的争夺，由于芝加哥的PMI数据不好，使得大量停损盘以及大量的日元多头头寸被触发，导致了快速走高的行情。（对美元不利的经济数据通常会对日元产生双重影响）。但是之后的民意调查又使日元有所回撤。看起来日元未来将进一步走强。 Today's Trades Short USD/JPY around 108.05 or slightly higher with stop at 108.85 and a target of 106.20 Short USD/CHF above 1.2500 with a stop at 1.2605 and a target of 1.2360 Long EUR/USD from around 1.2170 with a stop at 1.2090 offered and a target of 1.2350 Maintenance of Trading Strategies from : Long EUR/GBP - keep stop up to 0.6625   Long EUR/USD - drop the former buy stop strategy in favor of today's strategy. Economic Data Today: German Retail Sales for May at 06:00 GMT (at -1.5%: much worse than -0.1% expected) Total New Construction Orders for May (UK) at 07:30 GMT Italian, French, German, and EC Manufacturing PMI's for June between 07:45 and 08:00 GMT Unemployment Rate for June (Norway) at 08:00 GMT Manufacturing PMI for June (UK) at 08:30 GMT   Unemployment for May (Euro-Zone) at 09:00 GMT ECB Announces Interest Rates (EU) at 11:45 GMT Deposit Rate Announcement (Norway) at 12:00 GMT Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (US) at 12:30 GMT SVME PMI for June (Switzerland) at 13:00 GMT Construction Spending for May (US) at 14:00 GMT ISM Manufacturing for June (US) at 14:00 GMT Important Data this week: Friday: Unemployment Rate and Nonfarm Payrolls (US) ===================================== Market Commentary, June 30 My stab yesterday at predicting a weak Consumer Confidence number based on recent Bush approval ratings was a misstep indeed, as the confidence reading surged to the highest level in 2 years. Apparently the falling of prices at the gas pump and perception and headlines about job growth are having a bigger impact than I would have expected... The pivot point today is, of course, the FOMC meeting, with the rate announcement (we STRONGLY believe in a 0.25% hike, which is also the market expectation - a 0.50% hike is a true longshot) coming at 18:15 GMT. The accompanying statement will be one of the most closely scrutinized ever, with signs of more hawkishness than expected the feared scenario - making a dovish tone (for example, a simple repeat of the existing statement) the surprise - and USD negative - scenario. I suspect the Fed will adjust it to a slightly more hawkish tone with an adjustment of a word here and there, but will not come out with guns blazing. The closely watched Tankan survey of large manufacturers in Japan is out tonight. Some say that the recent weak retail and other data was due to the timing of the Golden Week holiday - which leaves JPY strength as a possibly scenario as the next big move post FOMC (assuming the Tankan is strong and the Fed's wording doesn't cause a route in the bond market - this would mean a EUR/JPY of 1.2900 or lower and GBP/JPY would fare even worse.) Technically, the USD looks very strong, and could strengthen even more. But the sluggish price action and back and forth movements on the charts can provide for a treacherous trading environment, as every strong move in one direction seems to be immediately reversed. The general outlook is this: while the USD looks to strengthen, it may not last long even if we see a lot of movement. Don't forget that, while Consumer Confidence is very high, we saw a hugely disappointing Retail Sales number, and WalMart - by far the largest retailer in the US with $300+ billion in annual sales - has lowered its same store sales growth expectations. The US is a consumer economy. A perception that the consumer economy is slowing could eventually send the USD tumbling once again. CAD traders - watch out for today's GDP announcement. The last few inflation numbers from Canada have been strong - leaving the door open for the BOC matching the Fed's moves in the future. A strong growth number today could have CAD strengthening even while the USD is doing the same. Possible targets areas if USD strengthens: GBP/USD: 1.7850     USD/CHF - 1.2800      EUR/USD - 1.2000     AUD/USD - 0.6680   New Trades None - I prefer to sit today out and have a look at the aftermath tomorrow. There seems to be a real struggle going on between the large and determined opposing forces in the currency markets - the technicals don't suggest that this churning will necessarily end right away.   OR - Buy USDCHF for a try at 1.2800 and a stop somewhere below 1.2600. Looking at the charts, I suspect there are oodles of stops just above the 1.2700 level that will blast this one higher before the FOMC meeting if we see the USD strenghthening throughout the day. Maintenance of Trading Strategies from : Long EUR/GBP - pull stop up to 0.6625   Long EUR/USD - maintain buy stop order at 1.2225 (this looks like a longshot now!) and stop of 1.2140 and target of 1.2330. If market drops below 1.2000, cancel this order. Economic Data Today: Consumer Confidence Indiciator for June (France) at 06:40 GMT Unemployment Rate/Change for May (France) at 06:45 GMT Consumer Confidence for June (Sweden) at 07:30 GMT Industrial/Consumer Confidence for June (Euro-Zone) at 09:00 GMT KOF Swiss Leading Indicator for June (Switzerland) at 09:30 GMT   GDP for April (Canada) at 12:30 GMT Chicago PMI for June (US) at 14:00 GMT Weekly Crude Inventories (US) at 14:30 GMT FOMC Rate Decision (US) at 18:15 GMT Tankan Survey for June (Japan) tonight at 23:50 GMT Important Data this week: Thursday: Retail Sales (Australia), CPI (Switzerland), Deposit Rates (Norway), Manufacturing PMI (Europe), ECB Announces Rates (EU), PMI (Swizerland), ISM Manufacturing (US) Friday: Unemployment Rate and Nonfarm Payrolls (US) ======================================== Market Commentary, June 29 Yesterday saw the USD weakening largely as expected, but then stronger than expected Personal Income and Personal Spending numbers (not to mention a higher than expected PCE Deflator (2.5% vs. 2.2% expected YoY), which the Fed uses to judge the US inflation picture), sent bonds tumbling and the USD surging. This erased much of the gains for our scenario, and now we are forced to take a cautious stance, at least in EUR/USD. The chart is beginning to look a bit messy with large retracements following every surge upwards. AUD/USD is faring better and has much "cleaner" technicals. The scenario is bent, but not broken, so the best we can do is hope that part of yesterday's action was stop-running and overexuberance brought on by the Iraq handover news, which is irrelevant for the markets. Today will provide the answer one way or another. An article out in the New York Times overnight shows that Bush's approval rating is the lowest ever. This leaves me scratching my head a bit at the latest University of Michigan Confidence numbers, which are extremely high. I would have suspected a tighter correlation between a country's feeling about its president and their confidence in general - in other words that sentiment would be falling. I studied the correlation of the Consumer Confidence numbers with the University of Michigan Confidence numbers over the last several years and discovered that while they are very tightly correlated over long time periods, individual months can show dramatic differences. I tend to think, with the latest Bush poll, that the Consumer Confidence number today will be a disappointment. Japanese data out overnight was weakish, with a 0.5% vs. 2.5% expected in industrial production the worst of the numbers and a cause for concern. Also disappointing were household spending and small business confidence. This, plus the spike in interest rates yesterday, were a double whammy for the JPY, which weakened markedly against the USD and EUR. This process may continue as long as interest rates remain on the rise, and EUR/JPY may see 134.00 again, while USDJPY could consolidate higher to the 109.20 area The Canadian elections: the Liberals won, an outcome that was possible, but not favored by recent polls. I've seen 13 different interpretations of what this means for CAD - and I've decided to toss the analysis in the bin, because none of the arguments are very compelling. The technicals tell me that USD/CAD looks like it could break lower and head toward 1.3050. New Trades Long EUR/USD - The sell-off from just below the 1.2240/50 area swing level is cause for concern, so one may want to wait for renewed strength before buying. Buy at 1.2225 with a stop at 1.2140 offered and a target of 1.2330. Long AUD/USD - If not long already, buy here around 0.6985 and put a stop at 0.6910 offered. Target is 0.7180. Long EUR/GBP - EUR/GBP is consolidating in a very tight range and may not dip lower to provide the ideal entry level. Buy here (around 0.6660) with a stop at 0.6600 offered and a target of 0.6780. Maintenance of Trading Strategies from : Long GBP/USD - Cable rallied, but fell short of our target. Sell for small profit at current levels (1.8280) Long EUR/GBP - See New Trades   Long AUD/USD - Move stop to 0.6910 offered. Long EUR/USD - Maintain stop at 1.2080 offered or sell and wait for break higher to buy again (see New Trades). Economic Data Today: Nationwide House Prices for June (UK) at 06:00 GMT Business Confidence Indicator for June (France) at 06:45 GMT PPI for May (France) at 06:50 GMT Retail Sales for May (Norway) at 08:00 GMT Retail Sales for May (Sweden) at 08:00 GMT GfK Consumer Confidence Survey for June (UK) at 09:30 GMT Industrial Product/Raw Materials Prices for May (Canada) at 12:30 GMT NBNZ Business Confidence for June (NZ) at 13:00 GMT Consumer Confidence for June (US) at 14:00 GMT Important Data this week: Wednesday: Leading Indicator (Switzerland), FOMC Rate Decision (US), Tankan Survey (Japan), Chicago PMI (US) Thursday: Retail Sales (Australia), CPI (Switzerland), Deposit Rates (Norway), Manufacturing PMI (Europe), ECB Announces Rates (EU), PMI (Swizerland), ISM Manufacturing (US) Friday: Unemployment Rate and Nonfarm Payrolls (US) ==================================== Market Commentary, June 28 Friday dished up another day of nerve-wracking tests of resistance for USD bears, as EUR/USD and USD/CHF came precariously close to breaking key levels. But USD sellers were found once again and the action continues to underline the argument that the USD will weaken further. This week should certainly provide sufficient catalysts for some large moves, either way, as Wednesday's FOMC meeting and Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls are just the two most important numbers in a very busy week. Regarding the FOMC meeting: again, judging from the bond market action, markets have overanticipated this event, so it's mostly just a question of getting the meeting out of the way so the market can focus on the next event, or indications of the rapidity with which the Fed will move in the future as compared to other central banks. My suspicion is that this week may be the week when the market begins to notice the deceleration of improvements in the Economic Data. Friday's large downward adjustment in the US GDP estimates for Q1 were an appetizer for this theme. I've been suspecting over the last several days that the situation in Iraq would eventually begin to get the markets attention, but that has not been the case at all as stock markets are turnning a blind eye to the situation and rallying. It seems the markets don't care about the violence, they may only care about the effect of that violence on oil prices. My suspicion is that the situation in Iraq will continue to worsen and will eventually begin to affect oil prices, and therefore the markets in general, once again. Turning to the trading environment, we're left again with the same trades we looked at on Friday - and we're essentially at the same levels we had on Friday as well. The first "failure point" for EUR/USD if we're to look at stop levels, comes in around 1.2080, with a bigger failure point around 1.2000. The key upside swing level comes in around 1.2240/50, meaning that if we see EUR/USD swinging through that level, the currency may quickly swing higher to the 1.2350 area resistance. Regarding the JPY - the technicals don't offer great risk/reward here. We've seen a huge move in JPY strength, and there's likely more to come, but we may see some kind of consolidation first. EUR/JPY is in a descending wedge formation, with the upper bound coming in around 131.30. If that area falls, we may see EUR/JPY back to 132 or slightly higher before EUR/JPY heads lower again. USD/JPY has retraced strongly from the 107 level. The 108.20 area should offer some robust resistance, but if it falls, we could see USD/JPY spiking higher on stops being taken out. Further out, USD/JPY may head to 106 or lower. New Trades Long EUR/USD - If not long already, buy around here (1.2150) with a stop at 1.2080 offered and a target of 1.2330 Long AUD/USD - If not long already, buy here around 0.6960 and put a stop at 0.6905 offered. Target is 0.7180. Long GBP/USD - Cable saw a nice recovery from support areas and is still in a nice consolidation range for higher levels still. Buy around here (1.8220) with a stop at 1.8120 and a target of 1.8400. Maintenance of Trading Strategies from : Long EUR/GBP - Buy again at 0.6630 or so with a stop at 0.6605 offered and a target of 0.6780 Short EUR/JPY  - Holding off for now on this trade.   Long AUD/USD - Maintain stop at 0.6905 offered. Long EUR/USD - Maintain stop at 1.2080 offered. Economic Data Today: Personal Income and Spending for May (US) at 12:30 GMT Important Data this week: Tuesday: Trade Balance (Australia), Consumer Confidence (UK) Wednesday: Leading Indicator (Switzerland), FOMC Rate Decision (US), Tankan Survey (Japan), Chicago PMI (US) Thursday: Retail Sales (Australia), CPI (Switzerland), Deposit Rates (Norway), Manufacturing PMI (Europe), ECB Announces Rates (EU), PMI (Swizerland), ISM Manufacturing (US) Friday: Unemployment Rate and Nonfarm Payrolls (US)