欧元美元着手突破1.2350顶部——Saxo 银行

	欧元美元着手突破1.2350顶部——下次上涨锁定1.2500目标；英镑瞄准1.8500，然后是1.9100。 Updated: Monday, Jul 05, 2004, 08:07 GMT Saxo 银行现推出罗伯特的外汇分析华语版。鉴于时间关系，总体介绍部分暂保留英文原文。我们目前向客户提供全部主要外汇币种走势的译文，向会员提供3对主要币种的分析。客户请点击All，可获得中文信息，会员请点击前三对币种，查看中文信息。 外汇分析华语版Saxo Bank 版权所有，深浪投资网编译，不当之处请参阅英文原文。 声明: 分析内容仅供参考，据此入市，风险自负。Saxo Bank 不对因译文错误，更新延迟及因此而产生的投资行为承担任何责任。 DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH TODAY: -     Japan's economic recovery is gaining momentum as it spreads to service companies from manufacturers and beyond major cities, Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui said. ``The economy is gradually gaining momentum to return to the path of sustainable growth,'' Fukui said in a speech at a conference held at the bank in Tokyo.  He said the recovery needs further momentum to achieve sustainable growth.  The central bank pushed overnight  rates close to zero by raising its target for reserves available to lenders in March 2001, aiming to stop deflation and support economic growth. FX Market Summary   -       The yen fell in Asia today after a decline in Japanese stocks damped demand for the nation's currency and polls suggested Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's party may lose seats in an election Sunday.    Japan's yen weakened against the currencies of all 16 of its biggest trading partners.   Against the dollar, the yen weakened to 108.55 at 1:02 p.m. in Tokyo from 108.32 late Friday in New York. It also fell to 133.69 per euro from 133.43. Australia's dollar held at a five-week high on expectations the central bank will increase interest rates later this year and the Federal Reserve will raise U.S. borrowing costs gradually.    The Australian currency surged Friday after a report showed fewer U.S. jobs were created in June than expected, damping prospects the Fed may quicken the pace of rate increases. A report today showed Australian job advertisements rebounded in June, boosting expectations the Reserve Bank will raise its key percent interest rate for the first time this year.   Australia's dollar bought 71.36 U.S. cents at 1:14 p.m. in Sydney, little changed from late New York trading on Friday when it climbed more than 1 percent. The unimpressive economic data weighed on the dollar on Friday, which finished marginally lower against the yen but fell a sizable 1.3% versus the euro. There was little in the way of euro zone data on Friday,  except euro zone producer prices, which surged 0.6%(m/m) in May and 2.4% (y/y), which was higher than expected. Much of this rise was due to higher energy prices. In addition, comments by ECB Chief Economist Issing pointed to concern over inflation. His comments suggested that the ECB may consider a rate hike sooner rather than later.  His comments were seen as fairly hawkish statements regarding price growth.  This tell us is that the ECB is closely watching inflation patterns, though it gives few clues as to possibly policy action. Monetary base statistics for Japan showed only a 4.4(y/y) advance for June on Friday after growing at a double digit pace through March. This is a troubling development because liquidity growth was one piece of the inflation puzzle that used to be in place in Japan. On Friday, the yen slumped against the dollar on the back of declines in the Nikkei, which fell 1.5%. The fall in the yen comes on several concerns though. Not only are markets a little edgy ahead of the June payrolls number, but ahead of the long weekend, there are obvious concerns about terrorist threats. A word about interest rate hikes: There are four reasons why the rise in U.S. interest rates is unlikely to provide a notable boost the dollar: First, the dollar has already appreciated markedly since the beginning of the year, fueled, in part, by the prospect of interest rate hikes. Currency markets, much like other financial markets, have already priced in higher interest rates.   Second, U.S. interest rates are at historic lows. Thus, it will be sometime before absolute interest rate differentials turn favorable for U.S. assets.   Third, as the Fed has noted once more, the intention is to tighten policy at a measured pace. Thus, differentials will improve only at a gradual pace.   Fourth,  the trade weighted dollar has declined, on average, by 1.4% during the six months following the beginning of prior tightening cycles. The historical evidence would, thus, argue for depreciation, not appreciation, in the dollar. With the initial tightening now fully priced in, the focus will undoubtedly turn to longer-term considerations, such as ever rising funding requirements. The spotlight will return to the burgeoning current account deficit, with consequent negative implications for the dollar. Forex Technicals:   欧元美元(EUR/USD)：在周五令人失望的薪水数据之后欧元快速上升——走高到1.2331高点。亚洲交易时段的小幅横盘整理提供了休整，而这应是短暂的。周五的行情已经被短期以及中期观点完全支持——欧元应很快挑战1.2350顶部，并应进一步走得更高，下次上升的可能目标在1.2500。 英镑美元（GBP/USD）：在周五薪水数据崩溃后，美元整体弱势，英镑走高。已经走高到1.8347，并应冲击1.8400——此后应进一步重拾升势。向好的观点依然保持，等待进一步的行情发展推动英镑再次走高，1.8480依然是下一个目标。甚至可能进一步上涨超过1.8500从而恢复1.9100目标。 美元日元（USD/JPY ）：美汇日元在一度走高到109.60之后开始横向整理。但此后下降趋势应重拾并可能再次走低到107.00底部。下次下跌得目标是105.70，然后是103.50。 美元瑞朗（USD/CHF）：美汇瑞朗因为三个原因快速走低——美元的弱势，强大的KOF领先指标，美国周末长假存在恐怖活动的可能性。1.2270的支持今天晚些时候应失守。此后重拾跌势——我们预计将进一步下跌到1.2320。 美元加元（USD/CAD ）：美汇加元稳定走低，1.3200弱支撑看起来今天晚些时候将失守。此后应进一步下跌，下一次下跌目标可能依然在1.3000区间。 澳元美元（AUD/USD）：一度走高到.7140，告诉我们后市向好的观点回到轨道。升势平滑的走高应突破.7200阻力位置，这将彻底打开继续走高的空间。 纽元美元（NZD/USD）：纽元升高到.6500并应该进一步加速走高到.6700。 欧元日元（EUR/JPY）：升势一度走高到134.10——比我们想要的目标要略高。晚些时候可能重拾跌势，可能进一步见到129.00。 欧元瑞朗（EUR/CHF）：欧元瑞朗交叉盘有所回调，并应该在1.5100之上找到支撑。应继续上涨并应该进一步上升到至少1.5350。这对交叉盘正在形成一个宽大的底部，展现出一个长期持续的反转信号。任何1.5430之上的升势都表明长期熊市的结束。 欧元英镑（EUR/GBP）：欧元英镑交叉盘一度走到.6735，并应最终重拾升势，以.6820为下次上涨的目标。