Saxo Bank外汇分析华语版

发表于 2004-7-14 14:27


	澳元美元应该在.7230/25找到支持——然后重拾升势走高到.7375；进一步的目标在.7625。外汇分析华语版Saxo Bank 版权所有，深浪投资网编译，不当之处请参阅英文原文。 DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH TODAY: July 13 - Europe - Australian business confidence rebounded in June from a one-year low as a government cash handout to families spurred retail spending and stronger global growth fueled exports. The confidence index rose 4.3 points from May to 10.1, according to a National Australia Bank Ltd. survey. A reading above zero means companies expecting their industry to improve in the next month outnumber those forecasting it to deteriorate. Companies said sales, profits and new orders increased in June. The central bank has kept its cash rate target unchanged this year at 5.25 percent following increases in November and December. - New Zealand business confidence rose in the second quarter as a housing boom and consumer spending spurred economic growth. A New Zealand Institute of Economic Research survey of 548 businesses showed a net 20 percent expect business to worsen in the next six months. That's better than the first quarter when a net 29 percent expected conditions to deteriorate. The net figure subtracts companies that expect conditions to worsen from those expecting improvement. The figures aren't seasonally adjusted. Bollard may raise rates a quarter point to 6 percent at his next review on July 29 to ease pressure on inflation, according to economists. The central banker forecasts annual inflation will accelerate to 3.3 percent by March 2005 from 1.5 percent this year. - U.K. retail sales growth slowed last month as bad weather and the European soccer championships kept people out of the shops, the British Retail Consortium said. Sales at stores open at least a year rose 2.4 percent in June from the same month last year, compared with a gain of 3.7 percent in May, according to the lobby group, which represents companies such as Tesco Plc, Britain's largest retailer. Total sales increased 5 percent, down from May's 6.5 percent increase. The survey was sponsored by accounting firm KPMG International. FX Market Summary - The yen weakened from near a two-week high against the dollar in Asia after Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average declined for a sixth day in eight, damping demand for the nation's currency. The Nikkei 225 fell as much as 0.7 percent, extending this month's drop to 2.8 percent. The scale of net share purchases by overseas investors has been declining since April, the Nihon Keizai newspaper said, citing figures from the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Foreign investors were record purchasers of stocks in the fiscal year ended March 31. Against the dollar, the yen dropped to 108.748 at 11:30 a.m. in Tokyo, from 108.27 late yesterday in New York. The yen also fell to 134.58 per euro from 134.38. The yen's decline accelerated when it fell beyond 108.50 and 108.60 per dollar, levels where a series of automatic orders to sell the currency had been placed. The Australian dollar was trading close to a two-month high on speculation a report will show a record U.S. trade deficit, signaling sustained demand for Australian exports to the world's largest economy. The U.S. is Australia's third-largest export market behind Japan and China. Australia's dollar bought 72.56 U.S. cents at 11 a.m. in Sydney, little changed from late Asian trading yesterday. The currency earlier rose to 72.85, the highest since May 7. On the currency front, the dollar finished unchanged versus the euro and marginally higher against the yen in New York yesterday. Earlier, the U.S. dollar was weaker against the euro and marked a fresh four-month low against the British pound. The greenback traded at $1.2437 per euro while one pound fetched as high as $1.8663. The main driver in currency markets has been the dollar’s weakness as investors are preparing for a more gradual tightening of monetary policy in the U.S. The pound traded within range against the euro yesterday in anticipation of today's U.K. consumer price data. Producer prices released yesterday showed subdued inflationary pressures in the U.K. in June as producer prices increased by a mere 0.1%, slightly below expectations. However, the consumer price data will be more important in shaping the Bank of England’s stance on monetary policy between now and the August meeting of the banks’ Monetary Policy Committee. Forex Technicals: - EUR/USD - the currency may indeed find support near 1.2360, but the uptrend should shortly resume-- no change in the view. As stated earlier, we now fell fairly confident that the positive short-term and medium-term views have been validated. The currency should push through to and beyond 1.2500 in the next few days. Firmer resistance await near 1.2700. We would like to see 1.2500 taken out before venturing further positive comments, but looks like momentum is getting set for follow-through to 1.2900 further out. - GBP/USD - the currency may indeed find support at 1.8575, then resume the uptrend. A double iteration of 4th and 5th waves this week may bring on 1.8750 as the next focus. Positive expectation of further rate hikes likely to push the currency forward even further in the days to come. The rally through 1.8500 has reinstated the 1.9100 targets. - USD/JPY - the currency recovered, but it remains to be seen whether the uptrend is back on track. The previous fall to 107.60 has seriously compromised the bullish scenario we had espoused. The downtrend may have reasserted and may have another go at 107.00 trough further out. The next downside target is 105.70 then 103.50. - USD/CHF - the currency recovered smartly, much stronger than we expected and has been to 1.2340, higher than our modest 1.2275 target. It may therefore extend some more towards 1.2360 area. But no change in the short-term view -- the currency pair should eventually resume the downtrend, and follows through lower once more. We still expect to see further declines to 1.2150 base and then through 1.2000 much further out. - USD/CAD -- the currency pair continues to consolidate and may advance to as high as 1.3240/50. But this small recovery remains corrective, and so the downtrend resumes shortly. The next downside target may still be the area of 1.3000 -1.2950. But much further out, focus now at 1.2700. - AUD/USD - the currency found resistance at .7285, but should end the corrective decline at .7230/25. The rally should resume thereafter and should rise further towards minor resistance at .7370 area, perhaps independently of the majors. Further out, the uptrend should focus at .7500 objectives. - NZD/USD - the currency has been to as high as .6620, found resistance but should end the fall perhaps at .6570 area. The currency should continue to trade higher from there towards the .6750, then to the .7050 new focal point further out. - EUR/JPY - the cross shows signs of recovering from a previous sell-off. The cross might yet rise to as high as 137.00 thereafter before significant resistance appears. The longer-term scenario takes on a large sideways consolidation requiring a sell-off from 138.00 - 139.00 potential resistance. - EUR/CHF - the cross did find support at 1.5175,producing a breakout rally, which should propel the cross to at least 1.5300, perhaps even to 1.5350 further out. The rally came after forming a broad bottom, so we should see some serious mileage to the upside from this pattern. Moreover, the stock market downward correction may have ended today, and that provides less grist for the CHF to grind as investment capital "fly out from quality". Any rally above 1.5430 suggests that the long bear market is over. - EUR/GBP - the cross did revisit .6660 level again -- and theory says we should see a good recovery from here. The uptrend resumes soon, which has .6820 as next upside focus. ==================================================== DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH TODAY: July 12 - New York - Japan's Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi vowed to stick with plans to sell state assets and keep spending curbs to shore up the nation's economic recovery after voters trimmed his party's seats in upper house elections. Koizumi's Liberal Democratic Party won 49 seats in yesterday's election for half the members in parliament's upper house, two shy of his pre-election target, according to the parties' Web sites. The opposition Democratic Party of Japan won 50 seats, an increase of 12. While short of Koizumi's goal, the LDP's tally was easily enough to ensure the party's coalition with New Komeito maintained its upper house majority. - Japan's ruling coalition held onto its majority in the upper house, allowing Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi to pursue his policies of curbing government debt and spurring the economy. Koizumi's Liberal Democratic Party won 49 seats -- more than some polls had suggested before Sunday's vote. The opposition Democratic Party of Japan won 50 seats according to preliminary results reported by NHK Television. The LDP's coalition partner, New Komeito, gained 11 seats. Koizumi will probably remain prime minister until 2006, when his term as LDP leader ends, because he needn't face a general election before that and the party has no credible alternative. FX Market Summary - The dollar was weak against the majors in Monday New York morning trading. The dollar fell to $1.2436 per euro and 108.22 per yen. There is a spate of top tier data this week, starting with tomorrow’s May trade balance data, which will no doubt raise concerns about the U.S.’s funding gap once again. Other data include June retail sales, PPI, CPI, industrial production and consumer sentiment. Given some disappointment in the data lately, the market has been revising its sentiment for the Fed’s actions and consequently, the dollar. The focus will also be on earnings announcements for Q2. PM Koizumi fared better than expected in the Japanese Upper House election over the weekend. The LDP captured 49 seats and as such, the losses are not enough to compel the PM to resign. Given that the LDP is going to hold on by a thread, its business as usual in the near term. But the story from here is likely to be one of a gradual erosion of Koizumi’s power. The next major election is September 2006. And without much fanfare in the election results, movements this week in USD/JPY are seen to remain rangebound. However, the yen received some support from MoF data which showed the May current-account surplus widened 21% to 1.89 trillion yen. But looking ahead to the rest of the week, there is not much on the data calendar this week to inspire a break out from the range. The euro was buoyed against the dollar despite some negative industrial production data, as the outlook for the dollar remains depressed. Euro zone data remains tepid. Italian industrial production was unchanged in May at 2.4%. German CPI for June rose 1.7% (y/y). So with the focus being on the U.S. data particularly the trade balance data due tomorrow, and June retail sales due Wednesday -- the soft U.S. dollar tone will likely continue, and euro should get further lift. UK house prices remained firm in May. The ODPM reported a 12.2% rise in house prices in May (yoy), which is up from 10.0% in April. Separately, PPI data for June showed a 0.1% rise, which was slightly lower than expectations. The GBP remained firm against the dollar, but may slip if the Labor party fares poorly in two key by-elections this week. The BoC will release its Canadian Business Outlook Survey for Q2. The survey will be important for setting rate hike expectations, which recently have been boosted by better than expected Canadian data. The focus of the survey will be how the respondents view inflation over the coming months. The June data for Canadian CPI is due on Friday. Should rate hike expectations be boosted, the Canadian loonie could test 1.31 against the dollar. Forex Technicals: News, data, references and commentaries compiled from Bloomberg, Reuters, CBSMarketWatch, Briefing.com, and Economy.com Euro/US Dollar (1.2357) - 05:46 GMT, Jul 13, 2004 欧元美元(EUR/USD)：欧元可能在1.2360附近找到支撑，但升势应很快重拾——看法不变。按照早期的分析，我们现在觉得向好的短期和中期走势已经被确认。欧元应在未来几天里推高到1.2500。强大的阻力在1.2700附近。在进一步冒险做看多的评论之前我们仅乐意见到1.2500被突破，但看起来动力强劲将进一步继续运行到1.2900。 Recommendations: Long EUR position from 1.2037 was closed at 1.2349 stop-loss. Buy EUR at 1.2357. Stop-loss: 1.2280. Profit target: 1.2900. British Pound/US Dollar (1.8555) - 05:48 GMT, Jul 13, 2004 英镑美元（GBP/USD）：英镑可能在1.8545找到支撑，然后重拾升势。本周可能走高到下一个目标1.8750。对进一步提高利率的预期很可能推动英镑在未来的时间里继续走高。升势超过1.8500阻力已经恢复了1.9100目标。 Recommendations: Bought GBP at 1.8316. Move stop-loss from 1.8525 to 1.8490. Keep profit target at 1.9125. US Dollar/Japanese Yen (108.62) - 05:49 GMT, Jul 13, 2004 美元日元（USD/JPY ）：美汇日元向上回撤，但继续观察美汇日元的升势是否回归。前面下跌到107.60对于我们赞成的牛市观点是打了折扣的。下降趋势可能已经重新开始，并可能再次走低到107.00底部。下次下跌得目标是105.70，然后是103.50。 Recommendations: Stand aside. US Dollar/Swiss Franc (1.2330) - 05:50 GMT, Jul 13, 2004 美元瑞朗（USD/CHF）：美汇瑞朗漂亮的向上回撤，比我们预计的要强劲，且一度走高到1.2340，比我们测算的目标1.2275要高。此后可能会进一步走高到1.2360区间。但短期看法不变——美汇瑞朗应最终重拾跌势，会再一次走低。我们依然预计此后将穿越1.2000后进一步走到1.2150底部，甚至更进一步走低到1.1700。 Recommendations: Short USD position from 1.2344 was closed at 1.2321 stop-loss. Sell USD at 1.2360. Stop-loss: 1.2420. Profit target: 1.1700. US Dollar/Canadian Dollar (1.3219) - 05:50 GMT, Jul 13, 2004 美元加元（USD/CAD ）：美汇加元继续横盘整理并可能走高到1.3240/50。但这个小幅度的回撤依然是调整，因此很快将重拾跌势。下一次下跌目标可能依然在1.3000 -1.2950区间。但更进一步的目标在1.2700。 Recommendations: Sold USD at 1.3231. Move stop-loss from 1.3240 to 1.3270. Keep profit target at 1.2900. Australian Dollar/US Dollar (0.7247) - 05:54 GMT, Jul 13, 2004 澳元美元（AUD/USD）：澳元在.7285遇到阻力，但应该在.7250/45区间结束下降调整走势。此后应重拾升势并应进一步上升到次级阻力位置.7370区间，进一步的升势应以.7500为目标。 Recommendations: Bought AUD at 0.6889. Keep stop-loss at 0.7200. Keep profit target at 0.7500. NZ Dollar/US Dollar (0.6577) - 05:55 GMT, Jul 13, 2004 纽元美元（NZD/USD）：一度走高到.6620，遇到了阻力但应在.6560/50区间结束下跌。此后应继续走高到.6750，然后进一步的目标在.7050。 Recommendations: Bought NZD at 0.6266. Move stop-loss from 0.6540 to 0.6480. Move profit target from 0.6800 to 0.7050. Euro/Japanese Yen (134.26) - 05:59 GMT, Jul 13, 2004 欧元日元（EUR/JPY）：从前面的下跌中显示出恢复上涨的迹象。这对交叉盘在重大阻力出现之前此后可能上升到137.00高点。更长期的走势呈现出一波大幅度的横向整理行情，且需要一波从138.00- 139.00潜在阻力位置开始的下跌。 Recommendations: Stand aside. Euro/Swiss Franc (1.5234) - 05:59 GMT, Jul 13, 2004 欧元瑞朗（EUR/CHF）：欧元瑞朗交叉盘真的在1.5175找到支撑，造成一波突破性的升势，这应推动价格走高到至少1.5300，甚至可能1.5350。这波升势出现在一个宽大的底部之后，因此我们应从这个形态中预计出一定的上升空间。此外，股票市场的向下调整可能结束在今天，投资资金可能给瑞朗提供了较少动力。任何1.5430之上的升势都表明长期熊市的结束。 Recommendations: Stand aside. Euro/British Pound (0.6662) - 05:59 GMT, Jul 13, 2004 欧元英镑（EUR/GBP）：真的再次回到.6660水平——理论上说我们应该在这里见到一波像样的恢复性上涨。将很快重拾升势，以.6820为下次上涨的目标。 Recommendations: Stand aside. British Pound/Japanese Yen (201.46) - 06:01 GMT, Jul 13, 2004 英镑日元（GBP/JPY） 200.00价格水平成为新的支持底线。升势可能已经重新开始并应很快突破202.35。对202.00的新的突破表明新的上升循环至少运行到205.00甚至可能进一步运行到208.00。 Recommendations: Bought GBP at 200.54. Keep stop-loss at 199.75. Keep profit target at 208.00. British Pound/Swiss Franc (2.2854) - 06:02 GMT, Jul 13, 2004 英镑瑞朗（GBP/CHF）：英镑瑞朗交叉盘看起来在本周晚些时候将恢复上涨并可能走高到2.2920。应进一步上冲走得更高。行情继续看好，并可能再次以2.3250阻力为目标。 Recommendations: Bought GBP at 2.2706. Move stop-loss from 2.2720 to 2.2760. Keep profit target at 2.3250.

发表于 2004-7-14 16:01


	AUD/USD finds support at .7220 -- currency is set to break through .7280 top, which confirms .7500 objective DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH TODAY: July 14 - Europe FX Market Summary - The yen was weaker in Asia today even as Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group Inc. and UFJ Holdings Inc. said they are considering a merger, spurring optimism the nation's financial system is strengthening. UFJ, Japan's fourth-largest lender, said it will hold a board meeting today before seeking merger negotiations. Against the dollar, the yen was weaker at 108.92 from 108.60 late yesterday in New York. The yen was also at 134.47 from 133.95. The euro was firmer in late Asian trading today, and has risen back to 1.2350; sterling currently trades at 1.8578 after finding support at 1.8538. Consumer confidence among Australians surged in July. Post-budget, confidence among consumers rose to its highest level in a decade. The index of consumer sentiment rose 4.5% in July from the prior month; its highest level since July 1994. Indexes above 100 shows optimists outnumber pessimists. Yet, an immediate rate hike by the RBA is still unlikely prior to the upcoming Federal election, which has yet to be announced; despite the new taxes that have spurred an increase in retail sales and consumer spending, and the cooling housing market. The RBA last amended its monetary policy in November and December last year, two consecutive quarter of a point rate hikes, which were followed by economic growth of only 0.2% in the first quarter of 2004. A rate hike is a possibility, although we may see the RBA leave rates on hold until early 2005. The Aussie remains firm -- currently trades at .7265. The dollar had the biggest gain against the euro in two weeks and advanced against the yen on Tuesday after the U.S. trade deficit narrowed for the first time in six months as exports surged to a record. Demand for the dollar helped the currency rebound from a four-month low against the euro and sent it higher against other currencies, including the South African rand, British pound and the Canadian and Australian dollars. The dollar strengthened to 1.2330 per euro at 5 p.m. in New York from $1.2409 yesterday. It was the biggest advance against the euro since June 29. The currency rose to 108.67 yen from 108.26. Forex Technicals: - EUR/USD - support did gel at 1.2300 and we expect the initial recovery to make further headway up north later in the day. The trade data induced decline should be fully digested by the time we have to contend with June Retail Sales data in early New York session. Odds seem to favor a larger-than-expected decline, which would be supportive of the euro and other major currencies, and would be one more nail in the greenback's coffin. No change in view then -- we still keep confidence on the view that positive medium-term scenario has been validated. The currency should push through to and beyond 1.2450 resistance towards 1.2500 in the next few days. Firmer resistance await near 1.2700. We would like to see 1.2500 taken out before venturing further positive comments, but looks like momentum is getting set for follow-through to 1.2900 further out. - GBP/USD - the currency may have found support above the 1.8522 trough and should pick up the pace later in the day. The uptrend should resume further and may finally go through the 1.8665 top. A double iteration of 4th and 5th waves later in the week may bring on 1.8750 as the next focus. Positive expectation of further rate hikes likely to push the currency forward even further in the days to come. The rally through 1.8500 has reinstated the 1.9100 targets. - USD/JPY - the currency trades erratically as competing fundamentals buffet the currency, ahead of the U.S.June retail sales data - it remains to be seen whether the uptrend is back on track. The previous fall to 107.60 may have seriously compromised the bullish scenario we had espoused earlier. The downtrend may have reasserted and may have another go at 107.00 trough further out. The next downside target is 105.70 then 103.50. - USD/CHF - the currency recovered further and has been to 1.2390 -- it may be a formidable resistance area. There's no change in the short-term view --the currency pair should eventually resume the downtrend, and follows through lower once more. We still expect to see further declines to 1.2150 base and then through 1.2000 much further out. - USD/CAD -- the currency pair has been to as high as 1.3300 -- much higher than our modest 1.3250 upside target. But a sharp decline has ensued, which is fully consistent with our view that the recent uptick was merely corrective. The downtrend has likely resumed. The next downside target may still be the area of 1.3000 -1.2950. But much further out, focus now at 1.2700. - AUD/USD - the currency has probably ended the corrective decline at .7215, slightly lower than our more modest .7235 target. The rally may have resumed and should rise further to the ,7285 top, then towards the minor resistance at .7370 area, perhaps independently of the majors. Further out, the uptrend should focus at .7500 objectives. - NZD/USD - the currency ended the corrective fall at .6550 -- the currency should continue to trade higher from here towards .6620 , then onwards to the .6750, then to the .7050 new focal point further out. - EUR/JPY - the cross recovered 133.70 -- the cross should probe 135.00 top again, and might yet rise to as high as 137.00 thereafter before significant resistance appears. The longer-term scenario takes on a large sideways consolidation requiring a sell-off from 138.00 - 139.00 potential resistance. - EUR/CHF - the cross did find support at 1.5200. No change in view -- the uptrend should propel the cross to at least 1.5300, perhaps even to 1.5350 further out. The rally came after forming a broad bottom, so we should see some serious mileage to the upside from this pattern. Moreover, the stock market downward correction may have ended today, and that provides less grist for the CHF to grind as investment capital "fly out from quality". Any rally above 1.5430 suggests that the long bear market is over. - EUR/GBP - no change in view -- the cross fell to as low as .6640 and may yet extend the corrective decline to .6630. But no change in the general view -- the uptrend resumes soon, which has .6820 as next upside focus. Market Data Preview: RETAIL SALES (June) – Wednesday, July 14, 8:30 AM EST Why it’s important – This is the first comprehensive look at consumer spending for June, giving the most complete sense to date on consumption conditions in the quarter just completed. Recall that retail sales jumped 1.2% in May, bouncing back from a 0.6% decline in April. Auto sales rose 2.7%, while retail excluding autos posted a solid 0.7% gain. What to expect – Background data and mathematical odds favor a sizable decline. Expect a drop in retail sales of around 1.0%, which would be the largest decline in 16 months. The main force behind this likely to be disappointing number was the 13% plunge in unit light vehicle sales reported for June earlier. Excluding autos, expect sales to have risen a minimal 0.1%, a smaller gain than in May based on evidence that chain store sales slowed significantly last month. Falling gasoline prices also pulled down this nominal number for the month in all likelihood. What the market expects – The market consensus is only for a 0.3% decline in the headline retail sales along with a 0.3% rise ex autos. The consensus far underestimates the likely impact of the month’s sizable drop in vehicle sales on the retail number. The key risk – The key market risk is a bigger than expected decline -- which proves that the market consensus is too optimistic. Such a large negative number would reinforce the sense that the economic is cooling (apparently evident in other recent indicators such as factory orders, payroll employment, and the ISM business survey of service industries). This would keep downward pressure on bond yields and, obliquely, equity prices. The alternative market risk, though probably less likely, is a markedly better than expected retail sales number. Though it’s not clear how it would happen, another sizable jump in headline retail sales would send bond yields up sharply. ========================================================== Forex Technicals: - EUR/USD - support at 1.2350 failed after the U.S. trade deficit data narrowed in may for the first time in six months.and the currency has been to 1.2315. But we see this as one-off event and support may gel at circa 1.2300 later in the day. While larger than expected, the decline should later be absorbed by the market, and longer-term trends will come to fore. No change in view then -- we still keep confidence on the view that positive medium-term scenario has been validated. The currency should push through to and beyond 1.2450 resistance towards 1.2500 in the next few days. Firmer resistance await near 1.2700. We would like to see 1.2500 taken out before venturing further positive comments, but looks like momentum is getting set for follow-through to 1.2900 further out. - GBP/USD - the currency pulld back after the greenback-friendly trade gap data, but the 1.8520 trough looks safe. The uptrend should resume later in the day. A double iteration of 4th and 5th waves later in the week may bring on 1.8750 as the next focus. Positive expectation of further rate hikes likely to push the currency forward even further in the days to come. The rally through 1.8500 has reinstated the 1.9100 targets. - USD/JPY - the currency recovered again in the back of the dollar-friendly trade data, but it remains to be seen whether the uptrend is back on track. The previous fall to 107.60 has seriously compromised the bullish scenario we had espoused. The downtrend may have reasserted and may have another go at 107.00 trough further out. The next downside target is 105.70 then 103.50. - USD/CHF - the currency recovered again after the trade data , but it may end at 1.2360. There's no change in the short-term view however -- the currency pair should eventually resume the downtrend, and follows through lower once more. We still expect to see further declines to 1.2150 base and then through 1.2000 much further out. - USD/CAD -- the currency pair did advance to as high as 1.3290 -- much higher than our modest 1.3250 upside target. But this small recovery remains corrective nonetheless, and so the downtrend resumes shortly. The next downside target may still be the area of 1.3000 -1.2950. But much further out, focus now at 1.2700. - AUD/USD - the currency should end the corrective decline at .7240/35. The rally should resume thereafter and should rise further towards minor resistance at .7370 area, perhaps independently of the majors. Further out, the uptrend should focus at .7500 objectives. - NZD/USD - the currency should end the corrective fall perhaps at .6570/60 area. The currency should continue to trade higher from there towards the .6750, then to the .7050 new focal point further out. - EUR/JPY - the cross pulls back, but shows signs of recovering from a previous sell-off. The cross might yet rise to as high as 137.00 thereafter before significant resistance appears. The longer-term scenario takes on a large sideways consolidation requiring a sell-off from 138.00 - 139.00 potential resistance. - EUR/CHF - the cross produced a breakout rally, pulled back, but may have found support at 1.5200. No change in view -- the uptrend should propel the cross to at least 1.5300, perhaps even to 1.5350 further out. The rally came after forming a broad bottom, so we should see some serious mileage to the upside from this pattern. Moreover, the stock market downward correction may have ended today, and that provides less grist for the CHF to grind as investment capital "fly out from quality". Any rally above 1.5430 suggests that the long bear market is over. - EUR/GBP - the cross fell to as low as .6640 and may extend the corrective decline to .6630. But no change in the general view -- the uptrend resumes soon, which has .6820 as next upside focus. News, data, references and commentaries compiled from Bloomberg, Reuters, CBSMarketWatch, Briefing.com, and Economy.com Euro/US Dollar (1.2327) - 06:28 GMT, Jul 14, 2004 EUR/USD - support did gel at 1.2300 and we expect the initial recovery to make further headway up north later in the day. The trade data induced decline should be fully digested by the time we have to contend with June Retail Sales data in early New York session. Odds seem to favor a larger-than-expected decline, which would be supportive of the euro and other major currencies, and would be one more nail in the greenback's coffin. No change in view then -- we still keep confidence on the view that positive medium-term scenario has been validated. The currency should push through to and beyond 1.2450 resistance towards 1.2500 in the next few days. Firmer resistance await near 1.2700. We would like to see 1.2500 taken out before venturing further positive comments, but looks like momentum is getting set for follow-through to 1.2900 further out. Recommendations: Bought EUR at 1.2357. Keep stop-loss at 1.2280. Keep profit target at 1.2900. British Pound/US Dollar (1.8561) - 06:28 GMT, Jul 14, 2004 GBP/USD - the currency may have found support above the 1.8522 trough and should pick up the pace later in the day. The uptrend should resume further and may finally go through the 1.8665 top. A double iteration of 4th and 5th waves later in the week may bring on 1.8750 as the next focus. Positive expectation of further rate hikes likely to push the currency forward even further in the days to come. The rally through 1.8500 has reinstated the 1.9100 targets. Recommendations: Bought GBP at 1.8316. Keep stop-loss at 1.8490. Keep profit target at 1.9125. US Dollar/Japanese Yen (109.22) - 06:28 GMT, Jul 14, 2004 USD/JPY - the currency trades erratically as competing fundamentals buffet the currency, ahead of the U.S.June retail sales data - it remains to be seen whether the uptrend is back on track. The previous fall to 107.60 may have seriously compromised the bullish scenario we had espoused earlier. The downtrend may have reasserted and may have another go at 107.00 trough further out. The next downside target is 105.70 then 103.50. Recommendations: Stand aside. US Dollar/Swiss Franc (1.2360) - 06:29 GMT, Jul 14, 2004 USD/CHF - the currency recovered further and has been to 1.2390 -- it may be a formidable resistance area. There's no change in the short-term view --the currency pair should eventually resume the downtrend, and follows through lower once more. We still expect to see further declines to 1.2150 base and then through 1.2000 much further out. Recommendations: Sold USD at 1.2361. Keep stop-loss at 1.2420. Keep profit target at 1.1700. US Dollar/Canadian Dollar (1.3198) - 06:29 GMT, Jul 14, 2004 - USD/CAD -- the currency pair has been to as high as 1.3300 -- much higher than our modest 1.3250 upside target. But a sharp decline has ensued, which is fully consistent with our view that the recent uptick was merely corrective. The downtrend has likely resumed. The next downside target may still be the area of 1.3000 -1.2950. But much further out, focus now at 1.2700. Recommendations: Stand aside. Australian Dollar/US Dollar (0.7252) - 06:31 GMT, Jul 14, 2004 AUD/USD - the currency has probably ended the corrective decline at .7215, slightly lower than our more modest .7235 target. The rally may have resumed and should rise further to the ,7285 top, then towards the minor resistance at .7370 area, perhaps independently of the majors. Further out, the uptrend should focus at .7500 objectives. Recommendations: Bought AUD at 0.6889. Keep stop-loss at 0.7200. Keep profit target at 0.7500. NZ Dollar/US Dollar (0.6581) - 06:31 GMT, Jul 14, 2004 NZD/USD - the currency ended the corrective fall at .6550 -- the currency should continue to trade higher from here towards .6620 , then onwards to the .6750, then to the .7050 new focal point further out. Recommendations: Bought NZD at 0.6266. Keep stop-loss at 0.6480. Keep profit target at 0.7050. Euro/Japanese Yen (134.68) - 06:32 GMT, Jul 14, 2004 EUR/JPY - the cross recovered 133.70 -- the cross should probe 135.00 top again, and might yet rise to as high as 137.00 thereafter before significant resistance appears. The longer-term scenario takes on a large sideways consolidation requiring a sell-off from 138.00 - 139.00 potential resistance. Recommendations: Stand aside. Euro/Swiss Franc (1.5243) - 06:32 GMT, Jul 14, 2004 EUR/CHF - the cross did find support at 1.5200. No change in view -- the uptrend should propel the cross to at least 1.5300, perhaps even to 1.5350 further out. The rally came after forming a broad bottom, so we should see some serious mileage to the upside from this pattern. Moreover, the stock market downward correction may have ended today, and that provides less grist for the CHF to grind as investment capital "fly out from quality". Any rally above 1.5430 suggests that the long bear market is over. Recommendations: Stand aside. Euro/British Pound (0.6641) - 06:33 GMT, Jul 14, 2004 - EUR/GBP - no change in view -- the cross fell to as low as .6640 and may yet extend the corrective decline to .6630. But no change in the general view -- the uptrend resumes soon, which has .6820 as next upside focus. Recommendations: Stand aside. British Pound/Japanese Yen (202.74) - 06:33 GMT, Jul 14, 2004 GBP/JPY - no change in the view -- 201.20 level is now the new support base -- the uptrend resumes and should break 202. 35 top shortly. A new break of the top suggests that the new upcycle goes for 205.00 at least and may even target 208.00 further out. Recommendations: Bought GBP at 200.54. Keep stop-loss at 199.75. Keep profit target at 208.00. British Pound/Swiss Franc (2.2946) - 06:33 GMT, Jul 14, 2004 GBP/CHF - the cross still looks set to recover further and has been to as high as 2.2950. It should make further upmoves and trend higher further out. The scenario remains positive and may still target the 2.3250 resisatnce again. Recommendations: Bought GBP at 2.2706. Keep stop-loss at 2.2820. Keep profit target at 2.3250.

发表于 2004-7-14 20:56


	澳元美元在.7220找到支持——将着手突破.7280顶部，从而确认.7500目标。 Saxo 银行现推出罗伯特的外汇分析华语版。鉴于时间关系，总体介绍部分暂保留英文原文。我们目前向客户提供全部主要外汇币种走势的译文，向会员提供3对主要币种的分析。客户请点击All，可获得中文信息，会员请点击前三对币种，查看中文信息。外汇分析华语版Saxo Bank 版权所有，深浪投资网编译，不当之处请参阅英文原文。声明: 分析内容仅供参考，据此入市，风险自负。Saxo Bank 不对因译文错误，更新延迟及因此而产生的投资行为承担任何责任。 DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH TODAY: July 14 - Europe - Intel Corp., the world's biggest semiconductor maker, said second-quarter earnings almost doubled to the highest in four years. Profit margins may be narrower than forecast this year as Intel boosts sales of low-priced components and discounts other products to shift inventory. Net income rose to $1.76 billion, or 27 cents a share, from $896 million, or 14 cents, a year earlier, Santa Clara, California-based Intel said in a statement. Sales increased 18 percent to $8.05 billion. Intel Chief Executive Craig Barrett said revenue this quarter will rise to $8.6 billion to $9.2 billion, higher than some analysts expected. - Australian consumer confidence surged to a 10-year high in July, spurred by income tax cuts, government cash handouts to families, lower gasoline prices and the central bank keeping interest rates unchanged. The consumer confidence index rose 4.5 percent from June to 119.5, the highest since July 1994, according to a Westpac Banking Corp. and Melbourne Institute survey released in Sydney. A reading above 100 shows optimists outnumber pessimists. From a year earlier, sentiment gained 2.9 percent. Stronger confidence will underpin consumer spending and help the economy rebound from its slowest growth in a year. - Gold and silver futures in New York had their biggest declines in two weeks as the narrowing U.S. trade deficit boosted the dollar and made precious metals priced in the currency more costly for buyers using the euro. Gold's decline ends a rally in which prices reached a three- month closing high yesterday as the dollar slid against the euro. Gold for August delivery fell $6.10, or 1.5 percent, to $402.30 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the biggest one-day decline since June 29 and the lowest closing price since July 6. Silver for September delivery on the Comex fell 15 cents, or 2.3 percent, to $6.392 an ounce, the largest decline for a most- active contract since June 28. Prices are up 33 percent from a year ago. FX Market Summary - The yen was weaker in Asia today even as Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group Inc. and UFJ Holdings Inc. said they are considering a merger, spurring optimism the nation's financial system is strengthening. UFJ, Japan's fourth-largest lender, said it will hold a board meeting today before seeking merger negotiations. Against the dollar, the yen was weaker at 108.92 from 108.60 late yesterday in New York. The yen was also at 134.47 from 133.95. The euro was firmer in late Asian trading today, and has risen back to 1.2350; sterling currently trades at 1.8578 after finding support at 1.8538. Consumer confidence among Australians surged in July. Post-budget, confidence among consumers rose to its highest level in a decade. The index of consumer sentiment rose 4.5% in July from the prior month; its highest level since July 1994. Indexes above 100 shows optimists outnumber pessimists. Yet, an immediate rate hike by the RBA is still unlikely prior to the upcoming Federal election, which has yet to be announced; despite the new taxes that have spurred an increase in retail sales and consumer spending, and the cooling housing market. The RBA last amended its monetary policy in November and December last year, two consecutive quarter of a point rate hikes, which were followed by economic growth of only 0.2% in the first quarter of 2004. A rate hike is a possibility, although we may see the RBA leave rates on hold until early 2005. The Aussie remains firm -- currently trades at .7265. The dollar had the biggest gain against the euro in two weeks and advanced against the yen on Tuesday after the U.S. trade deficit narrowed for the first time in six months as exports surged to a record. Demand for the dollar helped the currency rebound from a four-month low against the euro and sent it higher against other currencies, including the South African rand, British pound and the Canadian and Australian dollars. The dollar strengthened to 1.2330 per euro at 5 p.m. in New York from $1.2409 yesterday. It was the biggest advance against the euro since June 29. The currency rose to 108.67 yen from 108.26. News, data, references and commentaries compiled from Bloomberg, Reuters, CBSMarketWatch, Briefing.com, and Economy.com Euro/US Dollar (1.2327) - 06:28 GMT, Jul 14, 2004 欧元美元(EUR/USD)：欧元支持真的出现在1.2300附近，预计今天晚些时候初始的回升将有一定程度走高。导致下跌的贸易数据到现在为止应该被充分消化，接下来关注纽约交易早段的6月份零售数据。看起来会有一次比预计要大的下降走势，欧元和其他主要货币将获得支撑，美元的棺材板上将又多一颗钉子。看法不变——我们现在觉得向好的短期和中期走势已经被确认。欧元应在未来几天里推高超过1.2450到1.2500。强大的阻力在1.2700附近。在进一步冒险做看多的评论之前我们仅乐意见到1.2500被突破，但看起来动力强劲将进一步继续运行到1.2900。 Recommendations: Bought EUR at 1.2357. Keep stop-loss at 1.2280. Keep profit target at 1.2900. British Pound/US Dollar (1.8561) - 06:28 GMT, Jul 14, 2004 英镑美元（GBP/USD）：英镑可能在1.8522底部之上找到支撑并应在今天晚些时候恢复上涨。升势应进一步重拾并可能最终超过1.8665顶部。本周可能走高到下一个目标1.8750。对进一步提高利率的预期很可能推动英镑在未来的时间里继续走高。升势超过1.8500阻力已经恢复了1.9100目标。 Recommendations: Bought GBP at 1.8316. Keep stop-loss at 1.8490. Keep profit target at 1.9125. US Dollar/Japanese Yen (109.22) - 06:28 GMT, Jul 14, 2004 美元日元（USD/JPY ）：美汇日元近期走势显得没有规律，继续观察美汇日元的升势是否回归。前面下跌到107.60对于我们赞成的牛市观点是打了折扣的。下降趋势可能已经重新开始，并可能再次走低到107.00底部。下次下跌得目标是105.70，然后是103.50。 Recommendations: Stand aside. US Dollar/Swiss Franc (1.2360) - 06:29 GMT, Jul 14, 2004 美元瑞朗（USD/CHF）：美汇瑞朗进一步回撤并一度走高到1.2390——这可能是一个强大的阻力区间。短期看法不变——美汇瑞朗应最终重拾跌势，会再一次走低。我们依然预计此后将穿越1.2000后进一步走到1.2150底部。 Recommendations: Sold USD at 1.2361. Keep stop-loss at 1.2420. Keep profit target at 1.1700. US Dollar/Canadian Dollar (1.3198) - 06:29 GMT, Jul 14, 2004 美元加元（USD/CAD ）：美汇加元一度走高到1.3300——比我们测算的目标位置1.3250要高出许多。但紧接着便是快速的下跌，这完全配合了我们观点：近来的上扬仅仅只是调整。下降趋势很可能已经重新开始。下一次下跌目标可能依然在1.3000 -1.2950区间。但更进一步的目标在1.2700。 Recommendations: Stand aside. Australian Dollar/US Dollar (0.7252) - 06:31 GMT, Jul 14, 2004 澳元美元（AUD/USD）：澳元很可能在.7215结束了调整下降走势，比我们测算的位置.7235略低。升势可能已经重拾并应进一步上升到.7285顶部，接着是次级阻力位置.7370区间，进一步的升势应以.7500为目标。 Recommendations: Bought AUD at 0.6889. Keep stop-loss at 0.7200. Keep profit target at 0.7500. NZ Dollar/US Dollar (0.6581) - 06:31 GMT, Jul 14, 2004 纽元美元（NZD/USD）：在.6550结束调整下跌走势——应继续走高到.6620，接着看.6750，然后进一步的目标在.7050。 Recommendations: Bought NZD at 0.6266. Keep stop-loss at 0.6480. Keep profit target at 0.7050. Euro/Japanese Yen (134.68) - 06:32 GMT, Jul 14, 2004 欧元日元（EUR/JPY）：欧元日元恢复上涨到133.70——应再次推高到135.00顶部，此后在重大阻力出现之前可能上升到137.00高点。更长期的走势呈现出一波大幅度的横向整理行情，且需要一波从138.00- 139.00潜在阻力位置开始的下跌。 Recommendations: Stand aside. Euro/Swiss Franc (1.5243) - 06:32 GMT, Jul 14, 2004 欧元瑞朗（EUR/CHF）：欧元瑞朗交叉盘真的在1.5200找到支撑。看法不变——升势应推动价格走高到至少1.5300，甚至可能1.5350。这波升势出现在一个宽大的底部之后，因此我们应从这个形态中预计出一定的上升空间。此外，股票市场的向下调整可能结束在今天，投资资金可能给瑞朗提供了较少动力。任何1.5430之上的升势都表明长期熊市的结束。 Recommendations: Stand aside. Euro/British Pound (0.6641) - 06:33 GMT, Jul 14, 2004 欧元英镑（EUR/GBP）：看法不变——下跌到.6640低点，可能进一步调整下跌到.6630。但总体看法不变——将很快重拾升势，以.6820为下次上涨的目标。 Recommendations: Stand aside. British Pound/Japanese Yen (202.74) - 06:33 GMT, Jul 14, 2004 英镑日元（GBP/JPY）看法不变—— 201.20价格水平现在是新的支持——升势重新开始并应很快突破202.35。对顶部的新的突破表明新的上升循环至少运行到205.00甚至可能进一步运行到208.00。 Recommendations: Bought GBP at 200.54. Keep stop-loss at 199.75. Keep profit target at 208.00. British Pound/Swiss Franc (2.2946) - 06:33 GMT, Jul 14, 2004 英镑瑞朗（GBP/CHF）：英镑瑞朗交叉盘看起来将恢复上涨并可能走高到2.2950。应进一步上冲走得更高。行情继续看好，并可能再次以2.3250阻力为目标。 Recommendations: Bought GBP at 2.2706. Keep stop-loss at 2.2820. Keep profit target at 2.3250.