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(MORE) Dow Jones Newswires
MARKET TALK: Dollar Remains Near Session Lows
Edited by Nathan Barker
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
(call: 609 520 4625; e-mail: nathan.barker@dowjones.com)
MARKET TALK can be found using N/DJMT
10:12 (Dow Jones) The weaker than expected University of Michigan sentiment index hasn't inspired further selling in the dollar, but it's helping to keep it at session lows. EUR/USD is now at 1.2320 from 1.2259. USD/JPY is also near its lows, at 110.71 from 110.80. (SDV)
10:08 (Dow Jones) Yeah, sure, he said a lot of nice stuff about Internet stocks that he didn't really believe, but that was 5 years ago - so what? CNBC features former Merrill analyst Henry Blodget, offering up his thoughts on Google's IPO. The hype meter is now officially pinned on "full". (JHS)
9:42 (Dow Jones) Lower-than-expected PPI having minimal impact on Fed fund futures. Independent trader Ed Dworkin says they show a 75% chance of a 25 basis point hike to 1.75% at Fed's September 21 meeting. (HLP)
9:28 (Dow Jones) Despite investor concerns over the health of the tech sector, Prudential Equity Group analyst Steven Fortuna says demand at IBM remains strong. "Though we acknowledged that IBM's FQ3 is traditionally back end loaded, we believe our checks send an encouraging signal that the pace of demand remains strong, while IBM continues to execute at a solid clip," he writes. According to the analyst, IBM showed "superb" execution during July. Fortuna still expects IBM to report earnings of $1.11 a share and revenue of $23.35B. (DLF)
9:02 (Dow Jones) The foreign trade deficit in constant dollar terms also widened sharply to $59.0B in June from $51.1B in May. Only $1.9B of that $7.9B widening was due to increased oil imports, the rest was a fundamental worsening in exports (non-oil down $3.7B) and a $2B increase in non-oil imports. The wider than expected trade deficit appears to take away more from 2Q GDP than retail sales and inventories added. (JJM)
8:58 (Dow Jones) Dell seen opening higher after reporting in-line EPS and revenues but, more importantly, backing consensus expectations for 3Q. "Dell painted a more positive picture than HP with regard to demand in the quarter and going forward," UBS says. The broker notes that revenues were supported by share gains in servers and solid U.S. corporate revenue growth of 17% yr/yr. The sequential improvement in gross margins - to 18.2% from 18.0% - exceeds UBS' 18% forecast and shows a more benign pricing environment and more focus on profitable products. Dell's server shipments grew 31% yr/yr, aided by miscues at HP and strength overseas, UBS says. Broker keeps buy rating and $43 target. (NPB)
8:40 (Dow Jones) The PPI for July crept up by 0.1%, held down by a 1.6% decrease in food prices, but boosted by a 2.3% rise in energy prices. Core prices edged up by just 0.1%. On balance, non-oil inflation remains quite well controlled. (JJM)
8:38 (Dow Jones) The foreign trade deficit widened sharply to $55.8B in June from an upward-revised $46.9B in May. The huge increase in the trade deficit was driven by an increase in oil imports and a fall in exports. The wider than expected trade deficit is likely to take away any upward revision from consumption and inventories in GDP, although the real trade deficit may have widened less. (JJM)
8:34 (Dow Jones) Treasurys extend gains on below-consensus PPI and surprise widening in trade gap. PPI up just 0.1%, both overall and core, suggesting pipeline pressures in check. June trade gap explodes to $55.8B, well above expectations, suggesting slower 2Q growth. 10-year yield down 3.8 basis points at 4.23%. (BB)
8:18 (Dow Jones) Kohl's 2Q EPS beats the Street by a penny and, given improving sales trends at the end of the quarter and new merchandise launches planned for 3Q, expects to return to positive same-store sales increases in 3Q. Piper Jaffray says inventory continues to look good and the roll-out of the company's beauty line this coming October could prove to be a top-line catalyst in 3Q. It's also anticipating the addition of the Chaps brand in January 2005. The broker adds that KSS is facing relatively easy comps, improved inventory management should mean higher gross margins, and KSS continues to attract national as well as new exclusive brands. Stays outperform with new $52 target. Reckons KSS could take market share. Shares closed at $43.70. (NPB)
7:44 (Dow Jones) J.P. Morgan upgrades Rohm & Haas (ROH) to overweight from neutral, citing valuation, earnings potential, and free cash generation. Broker says ROH trades at 7x EBITDA based on its 2005 estimate, vs a peer group average of 7.9x and DuPont's (DD) 8.6x. ROH is in the early stages of a multi-year earnings recovery despite severe raw material cost inflation, JPM says. But the company is capable of raising prices by 2-3% to offset those costs. The broker expects ROH to increase EPS by 25% to $2.10 in 2004 and by 14% to $2.40 in 2005. Excluding amortization, add another 20c onto each number. Also, ROH generates 7.1% of its stock price in free cash, based on 2004 estimates. The average for mid-to-large-cap chemical companies that JPM covers is 6.3%. ROH closed at $37.77. (NPB)
7:30 (Dow Jones) Having looked into the mirror of their soul, stocks have decided to sell off recently, and sell off hard. A combination of less than impressive economic data, weaker corporate outlooks, record oil prices, and continuing terrorism fears are to blame. While none of those factors really look like going away yet, yesterday provided some rays of hope on two fronts. Firstly, retail sales showed themselves to be better than initially reported in June. Then Dell was actually upbeat about its outlook - not fashionable amongst techs right now. They'll need more help than that though. Today, PPI will be closely watched, while Michigan sentiment is out later in the morning. Those oil prices are expected to have pushed PPI up 0.2% in July after a 0.3% decline in June. Core is seen +0.1%. S&P futures up 2.2 points; 10-year up 5/32 to yield 4.24%. (NPB)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
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