6 - 1 - 09 美元指数修正形态以及参考目标价位

	老师　道指是不是ｖ型翻转　　要上１００００点附近？

	10# sharkeater

	33# cci 分三个阶段走，大概差不多到10000点下方附近（去年去年11月份初反弹的顶点附近）。 现在运行在第一个阶段的尾端概率大。 修正形态，锯齿形或者双锯齿形组合修正形态。 这一阶段越是接近目标价位，回落修正的深度越是大。 现在看来，修正比例考量在 80/89%之间 不会吃亏。 大的画面，这一波从14000附近上方开始的下跌， 1）乐观的推测： 属于2000年初在17000点附近开始启动的一波巨型修正过程中的一部分，暂定为第三阶段，其中的浪C。现在运行在第四浪的第一阶段。后市有可能在5000—— 6000点区域内获得最终承接后，再次向上攀升； 2）悲观的推测： 类似中国上证指数从6100点开始下来的修正方式一样，对此，可能还要延续5 —— 10年，下穿4000点。 再次启动上涨，甚至都不至于向现在反弹的势头这样猛（整个世界对投资美国资产怕了，就像日本股市近十来年的境况一样），拉升阶段恐怕要新的工业革命成果形成的产业来带动。

	33# cci 分三个阶段走，大概差不多到10000点下方附近（去年去年11月份初反弹的顶点附近）。 现在运行在第一个阶段的尾端概率大。 修正形态，锯齿形或者双锯齿形组合修正形态。 这一阶段越是接近目标价位 ... sharkeater 发表于 2009-6-2 17:48                                 登录/注册后可看大图

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	看问题，不能过于简单化。 80年代后期，日本股市的繁荣，是基于将近30年的快速经济增长后，日元升值阶段期间，大量的国际资本涌入，形成的各种泡沫下的结果。看到了38000点附近的价位后，20年了，都没有能够上到原先的一半高。 美国股市，在90年代初在2500/3000点，借助于IT 新工业革命成果形成的产业和由此带来的生产率提高，以及美元汇率升值，促使了股市的繁荣，推高到11700点。dot com 破灭是一个转折点，9.11 是促进剂，重创了纳斯达克，但是没有能够深度伤害美国实体经济，与金融资本市场。这很大程度归功于99年对前南斯拉夫的轰炸（数万亿美元资本从欧洲涌到美国），以及华尔街天才们的金融衍生品的创造力。 现在什么都没有了，将类同于鱼进食一般，无非就是吃了吐，吐了吃，指望股市再次向90年代那样兴旺，尤其是很快返回，恐怕不现实。 上证指数，飞升到6100点。 短短几年从1500点上下，上涨了四倍。当真是基本面在那几年里，产生了翻天覆地的变化？ 其助长剂是：基于20多年新兴经济的发展后，人民币的升值阶段；新发展的资本市场对国内储蓄与国外资本的吸引力。以后，人民币准备进入国际流通领域，再度升值阶段，股市还能产生一次快速上涨过程。 德国股市在90年代的繁荣，也有它的特殊推升剂。比如：东，西德国的统一带来的发展前景，等。21世纪开始，到达了8000多点，花三年时间，2003年回落到2200点上下后，借助于欧元的升值，重温了一次繁荣阶段。后市的发展前景，大概将从现在5000多点，再次返回到2500点附近。 单靠平庸的经济发展，不太可能产生奇迹般发达的股市资本市场。资本追求高利润。

	介绍一篇文章，和观点。 看不懂，有问题提出来询问。 Are You Prepared for Inflation's Impact on Dollar Markets? By Darrell Jobman Traders always operate in an environment of uncertainty. Even when they "know" something will happen or they think they have a market figured out, the market usually does its best to take twists and turns that keep most people from participating in a price move. That has been the nature of markets for many years, but the current climate has probably produced more diametrically opposed views than ever - stocks are in a new bull market/stocks are only in a bear market correction, oil prices will never recover/crude oil will reach $200 a barrel, economic recession/economic recovery, strong dollar/weak dollar, inflation/deflation . . . You can get some very plausible arguments for either case. VantagePoint, a trading tool, gives you highly accurate predictive information reflecting the intermarket dynamics that drive today's financial markets. Although no one knows exactly what will happen, let's start with what we do know. If your town is like my town, you were amazed as McMansions were built and housing developments sprang up on the outskirts of town from roughly 2002 to 2007. Who could afford to buy these homes, and where did the money come from to finance them? Tsk, tsk, you "knew" it couldn't last. Meanwhile, lots of people made lots of money while you sat on your hands - or maybe got into the game late. Just like the technology stocks bubble of the late 1990s. Now, we know, of course, that seldom has so much money been created out of so much air with so little substance with so much greed and so little responsibility. No one seemed to recall the Japanese bubble or the farmland or savings and loans debacles of the 1980s or other recent examples of real estate exuberance. Now, there is no doubt that we are in an ongoing credit crisis and financial crisis unlike anything most of us have experienced in our lifetimes - a generation-shaping event like the Great Depression and World War II. To deal with the financial crisis, everyone knows the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve have created billions of dollars out of thin air and pumped up banks and insurance companies and automakers and many other areas of the economy with those billions of dollars in stimulus and bailout programs. Furthermore, other nations are being forced to make similar stimulus efforts. VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software gives you the information you need - when you need it - so you can gain an early edge in forecasting market trends that can dramatically improve your trading performance. Everyone knows that so many new dollars and such reckless spending will lead to higher inflation rates. Well, we don't really know that yet. But for anyone who can connect the dots, it seems like a logical outcome. Actually, inflation is already occurring if you accept that the meaning of the word is an increase in the supply of money relative to the supply of goods and services. The Federal Reserve has nearly tripled the amount of credit since last September - new "money" injected into the financial system via various lending programs - and who knows how many bailout and economic stimulus dollars have already flowed out. . . with more on the way? We are no longer talking about billions but trillions of dollars in the biggest expansion of credit/money that the world has ever seen. The effect of inflation is usually rising prices of goods and services and interest rates and weakening in the value of the currency being expanded and diluted - what many people describe as inflation. So far, that effect really hasn't been noticed or acknowledged with housing prices remaining in a slump, auto makers and other companies going bankrupt, factories being idled or downsized, jobs being lost and unemployment rising, shopping malls and other commercial real estate in danger of default . . . In short, it seems like a very un-inflationary time. But it seems inevitable that the consequences of the massive increase in money and credit are on the way. Just as visionary traders might have positioned themselves for the collapse of the commodities bubble in the 1970s and again in 2008, the interest rate surge of the early 1980s, the dot.com bubble of the late 1990s or the housing bubble of the 2000s, it seems like it's time for traders to anticipate and prepare for the next stage of economic history, an inflationary spiral that one can only hope will not escalate into hyperinflation.

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	32# sharkeater 本人水平很低,提的问题也很低级可笑。但是，向毛主席保证，绝对没练过瑜伽。 老师的帖子都很高深，我也就猜着看个一二，很多地方也不得要领。看来，还要多看多学习，看明白再说。